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              要想体面的养老,现在到底要存多少钱?

              时间:2019-08-23来源:网友提供 作者:刘远举 点击:

              要想体面的养老,现在到底要存多少钱?
               
               
              养老到底要存多少钱,这恐怕是中国中产阶层,乃至所有人的天问。这个问题,回答的不多,我且做一个最简单的模型,抛砖引玉。
               
               
              一,模型:劳动——房产——服务
              在前述一些文章中,我提出了这样一个观点:钱自己不会劳动,钱只能购买“活劳动”,所有的养老都是当时的年轻人养当时的老人。无非是人们现在储蓄,30年后消费、购买未来年轻人的劳动,享受年轻人的服务。那么,30年后的劳动价格,就是这个模型的第一个变量。这个变量的来源,取一个最典型的样本“快递小哥的工资”,因为这是一个“纯劳动”岗位。本文会简单推测一下这个变量在未来30年间的变化。
               
              老人的最主要需求就是医疗、养老护理。30年后医疗、养老护理的价格是多少呢?我把它和劳动价格挂钩,分析医疗、养老服务的价格在未来30年间的变化。为什么这样挂钩,下文会做解释。
               
              钱会贬值,这是常识了,而中国人最主要的资产就是房产,所有,我把房产当作跨时空转移资金(也即储蓄)的唯一途径。为简单起见,假设房产也会随通货膨胀上涨,这样就可以不考虑通货膨胀。那么,资产价格就是另一个变量。这个变量在未来30年会怎么变,本文也会做一个分析。
               
               
              所以,我用房产作为“当下的现金”转化为“30年后的支付能力”的桥梁。然后,我把医疗、养老价格锚定在“快递小哥”的工资上,分析一下30年后的开支。然后,再反推出:现在要存多少钱,或者需要多少资产,才能在30年后获得有尊严的中产式养老。
               
              二,30年后的快递小哥的工资
              现在大家对劳动密集型岗位的工资上涨都有感性认识,一个刷墙的工人,一天要400。由于劳动价格上涨,很多企业也在把劳动密集型的部分转移到越南这样的东南亚国家。
               
              合益集团(Korn Ferry Hay Group)9月发布的一份报告称,自2008年到2016年,扣除通货膨胀因素,中国薪资平均增长10.6%,居世界第一。这里面当然有中国劳动分配中,工资收入低的因素,有一种补涨效应。所以不能按这个数据计算。不过,我们可以看看日本的情况。
               
              日本厚生劳动省上月公布50年后日本人口数量的预测结果,日本人口将在2053年跌破1亿;到2065年,将降至8808万。人口中的劳动年龄人口,在1995年达到了8700万的峰值,此后一直在下降,政府预计今年的数字将降至7600万,到2065年将降至4500万。
               
              日本的劳动力工资水平却一直比较稳定,从2000年至2016年的十七年间,日本年度的工资增长率除了2002和2009年两年低于-2%的增长,其他年间基本上是在-2%到+2%之间波动,所以基本上是一个比较稳定的状态。
               
              这里的原因,首先,是自动化替代,生产、生活中很多场景引入了机器人。还有一个原因是,日本人的职场很稳定,员工并不会简单因为市场紧缺,就通过跳槽来实现工资增长,这样稳定住了工资。不过,随着劳动人口的减少,这个趋势已经不可持续。日本首相安倍曾表示,考虑到目前日本劳动力市场逐渐收紧,预期薪资水平将逐渐上升。根据其他资料显示,最近七年日本工资一直维持的是正增长,2016年达到了2.3%。随着日本劳动力人口的进一步减少,日本工资水平将出现较大增幅。
               
               
              2018年8月,第一财经商业数据中心(CBNData)与苏宁易购联合发布《2018快递员群体洞察报告》显示,中国快递员总量已经达到300万,月平均工资在6200元左右,年收入74400元,凑个整数,8万元。按日本2%的工资上涨率计算,那么,30年后,快递小哥的工资要涨1.8倍,凑个整数2倍,也就是20万元。撇除掉通货膨胀之后的工资涨2倍,这个数目,对中国人来说不难想象,并不离谱。参考其他发达国家的情况,这个数字也不算离谱。
               
              三,资产价格的变迁
              恒大集团首席经济学家任泽平曾说过一句话:我研究了10年房地产,把它总结为一句话,“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”。
               
              中国与日本的人口有相似之处。资产方面,中国目前和80年代末的日本非常相似,不要说房地产泡沫,就是全球旅游,大肆采购也非常类似。所以,还是用日本来比较。这一段相关资料很多了,就不展开了,简单的说,如今日本的房价,只有当年最高点1991年时的35%。
               
              值得注意的是,中国与日本的不同之处。前端时间,有记者采访关于城市化的问题,我给她讲了一个观点,正好可以用在这里。
               
              其实,说人口,更准确的说是城市化进程,即人进到城里买房。
               
              先说一般意义的城市化。关于城市人口迁徙,有一个著名的ZIPF法则,该法则认为,对于一个国家来说,城市人口与其城市大小排名之间存在简单的相关关系。一个国家最大城市的人口数量为第二大城市人口数量的两倍,是第三大城市人口数量的三倍,以此类推,为第N大城市人口数量的N倍,即城市人口对数值与其秩排名之间存在明显的负相关关系。日本1.3亿人、3700万在东京,韩国5000万人、2500万在首尔,大都市圈是不断扩大的,人不断往大都市圈流入。东京现在的房价虽然相比以前,跌得很厉害,但能停在现在的位置,就是这种人口趋势支撑起来的。
               
              再来说中国的城市化。现在北上广深,仍然在抑制人口进入,与此同时,新一线城市的概念兴起了,一共有15座新一线城市,依次为成都、杭州、重庆、武汉、西安、苏州、天津、南京、长沙、郑州、东莞、青岛、沈阳、宁波、昆明。这些城市在抢人,政策也在把人导向这些城市。所以,未来中国不会像东京、首尔那样,人口的分布会均匀一些。
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