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              一个被白银杀死的帝国

              时间:2008-12-16来源:天涯社区 作者:樊南五柳 点击:

              凡是有点历史常识的人,都知道李自成灭了明朝。但这只是一个表象,明朝的灭亡的根本原因是它的经济的崩溃。而导致明朝的经济的崩溃的导火索就是白银短缺。可是说是白银毁了大明帝国。
                
                 在研究明朝灭亡时,大多人将注意力集中在明朝和农民起义以后与后金(清)的军事斗争上,以及明朝内部的激烈党争上。而忽略了了明朝末年白银的进口骤减这一事实。
                
                 魏斐德在《洪业———清朝开国史》开首即利用马尼拉的港口档案证实了这一点:1620 年至1660 年间,欧洲市场爆发了贸易危机,以西班牙的塞维利亚为中心的世界贸易体系遭到沉重打击。中国尽管与欧洲相距遥远,也不可避免地受到严重影响。在17 世纪20 年代欧洲贸易衰退之前,停泊于马尼拉的中国商船每年多达41 艘。到1629 年便降为6 艘。加之当时与中亚贸易的萎缩,新大陆输入中国的白银便大大减少了。17 世纪30 年代。白银又开始大量流入中国,西属新大陆的白银又从海上源源运至马尼拉。大量日本白银被澳门人带到了广州,而更多的白银则从印度的果阿经马六甲海峡流入澳门。但不久,即30 年代末和40 年代初,白银流入两次被严重阻断,而此刻正值长江下游地区高度商品化的经济急需更多白银以对付通货膨胀之时。1634 年后,菲利浦四世采取措施限制船只从阿卡普尔科出口;1639 年冬,许多中国商人在马尼拉遭到西班牙人和土著人的屠杀;1640 年,日本断绝了与澳门的所有贸易往来;1641年,马六甲落入荷兰人手中,果阿与澳门的联系也被切断。中国的白银进口量骤然跌落。
                
                 那么白银的进口量骤然减少,会对明朝的经济造成很大的影响吗?在一般人眼里,古代中国的经济是自足自给的,怎么可能因白银的进口骤减而受到重大打击。确实明朝的经济完全可以自足自给,但是致命的是明朝的货币白银主要依赖进口。 中国虽然地大物博但不是白银的主要生产国。万历可谓中国历史上对开采金银最为热衷的皇帝,竟至“无地不开,中使四出。”闹得“群小藉势诛索,不啻倍蓰,民不聊生”, 但万历及其矿监如此努力,最后开采了多少白银呢? 据载:“自二十五年至三十三年,诸铛所进矿税银几及三百万两”,平均每年二十多万两, 即使算上宦官数倍贪污中饱之数,其开采量完全不能进口的白银相比。美国学者魏斐德在他的著作中写道在17 世纪的前30 多年中,每年流入中国的白银,总量约达25 万至26. 5 万公斤。美国学者艾维四长期从事明清之际白银流入中国问题的研究。他认为1560到1600年日本白银的年输出平均数在33750一48750公斤之间,大多数最后还是到了中国。从南美洲运来的白银也相当多,16世纪末到17世纪初经过菲律宾流入中国的南美洲白银达到57500一86250公斤之间。而且马尼拉不是南美洲白银进入中国的唯一门户,还有一部分从澳门、台湾、东南亚进人中国。艾维四估计,从阿卡普尔科运到马尼拉的白银平均每年143吨,仅1597年一年就有345吨 。明朝到底进口了多少白银,这是一个很复杂的问题,不可能得到很精确的数据.但从以上学者研究的数据上看明朝的白银完全不能自足自给,严重依赖进口。一个不富藏银的国家, 竟然去选择别的国家所富藏的贵金属白银作为自己的货币, 今天看来, 这就是一件把金融命脉委于他人的非常荒唐的事情。
                
                 那白银的骤然减少对明朝的经济造成多大的影响呢?
                 明末人叶梦珠《阅世篇》卷七《食货一》中记载崇祯壬申(1632年)“白米每斗一百二十文,直银一钱,民间已嫌其贵”,十一、二年(1638 - 1639 年)“斗米三百文,计银一钱七、八分,识者忧之”,十五年(1642 年) 春“时钱值日落,每千值银不过四钱几分。白米每石文银五两,计钱一十二千有奇”。顺治三年(1646 年)“斗米几至千文”,四年(1647 年)“白米每石文银三两。”六年(1649 年)“大熟,糯米每石价止一、二两,珠米每石九钱,白米每石价一两耳。”也即是说,如以铜钱计,崇祯时十年间米价上涨了十倍,银价上涨了五倍。鉴于粮价是中国物价的基本指数,即便加上战争及灾荒因素,也较同时欧洲物价上涨的“三到四倍”更为严重。尤其是白银和铜钱比值的变化。白银和铜钱比值在短短几年内出现如此大的波动,不可能与当时进口白银骤然下降无关。
                
                 魏斐德《洪业———清朝开国史》写道:明朝末年日益恶化的通货膨胀(这里的通货膨胀是针对铜钱而言的),可能正是白银进口长期不足的严重后果之一。在长江三角洲等人口稠密地区,通货膨胀导致谷价暴涨,给当地城镇居民带来极大灾难。在1635 年至1640年白银进口量骤减期间,那些以要以养蚕为生的人们处境更艰难了。由于国际丝绸贸易萎缩,浙江北部的湖州等丝绸产地迅速衰落。与此同时,大灾和疾疫又一起袭来。从1626 年到1640 年,罕见的自然灾害席卷中国大地,严重的干旱和洪涝接踵而至。接连不断的饥荒,伴随着蝗灾和天花,导致人口大量死亡。经过这场浩劫,晚明的人口总数大幅度下降。有的学者甚至提出,从1585 年到1634 年,中国人口可能减少40 %。不管怎样,中国人口的严重下降,恰恰与全球性的经济衰退同时发生。仅这一点便足以使历史学家们相信,中国也被卷入了17 世纪那场困扰着地中海世界的普遍危机。三吴向为出口贸易区的中心地带,亦为国赋之重点此刻已因外贸受阻及灾荒频仍而无暇自顾,因白银流入而获得的利益亦大打折扣。宋明以来国家财赋“取诸东南,用之西北”的传统做法也受到挑战,盖“东墙”既已穷绌,何以补缀“西墙”? 所以崇祯困坐深宫,成天为饷银发愁。
                
                 可以看出白银进口的骤然减少对明朝的经济重地遭受重大打击,而且严重影响到了明朝的财政,使明朝的财政进一步恶化。但是白银进口的骤然只是明朝经济崩溃的导火索而已,它只能削弱了明朝的财政,并打击明朝的经济重地,但这一切不能使明朝这一偌大的帝国崩溃。毕竟推翻明朝的农民起义是在帝国的西北爆发的而不是东南。那么西北的农民起义爆发与白银有何关系呢?
                
                 西北的农民起义的爆发的原因很多如天灾,官逼民反,生态环境。但往往忽视了白银对西北的严重伤害。 明朝时白银的主体从南方流人京师,从京师流人东北边防,又从东北回流南方(当然,一路上不断沉淀,成为达官贵人的窖藏)。处于市场边缘的西北、山东半岛等地成了白银所灌溉不到的蛮荒地带。作为传统的粟麦作物区,这些地方的资源已被长期的历史重负所耗尽了。西北缺乏原棉和生丝,而中国正是用丝绸和瓷器去换国外的白银。这样西北成了一个白银灌溉不到的地方。而一条鞭法实施后把国家税收折合为白银来征收 。这使农民陷人了任人宰割的被动局面,即使丰收之年也难免凶厄:“为纳粮不得不以谷易银。而开征太早,预向客(商)借,谓之揭谷,谷二十担始得银一两;倘期满不偿,则各台远控,拖累无休。浏阳之民折屋弃产,常妻卖子,殆无虚日失” “丰年而卖其妻子者,唐宋之季所未尝有也。往在山东,见登、莱滨海之人,多言谷残。处山僻不得银以输官。今来关中,自娜以西至于岐下,则岁甚登,谷甚多,而民且相率卖其妻子……何以故?则有谷而无银也,所获非所输也,所求非所出也”( 顾炎武.亭林文集) 丰年都得卖妻子,稍遇灾荒便难以活命了。这样明末农民起义爆发在西北就绝非偶然了。
                
                 白银还导致明末那空前的粮食危机。明末的粮食危机很多人归咎于天灾,但白银在其中起的作用没有引起关注。对于白银的追求和外向型的经济, 极大地促进了明代的经济和生产活动向着专业化、商业化、跨国、 跨区域的方向发展, 特别是在江南地区, 比如松江地区, 随着国内外对于棉布的需求, 越来越多的人改行从事全日制的纺织和棉布贸易。这应该是一件很好的事,但是这对国家的粮食生产造成了重大影响。有着“苏杭熟,天下足”美称的江南粮食生产成了问题了。在17世纪40年代, 即使在丰收的年份,南直隶(指安徽和江苏地区, 包括皇帝的老家)、浙江地区的人们也要靠出售生丝、原棉、棉纱和棉布来购买粮食, 一条鞭法实施之后, 还要用银两来缴纳赋税和地租, 偿还贷款。这些当年曾经是自给自足的地区, 现在突然发现它的粮食供应必须依赖跨地区的贸易。而在交通运输手段比较落后的时代, 粮食生产的区域化和市场化很可能造成粮食危机。这样一来有天灾造成的粮食短缺的问题因粮食的市场化被大大放大了。那些市场化最彻底的富裕地区被证明无法抵御粮食危机, 因为这些地区不生产粮食,粮食要跨区域去买, 在粮价腾贵的灾荒时期, 你有钱也买不到粮食, 其中以富裕的江南地区遭受打击最为严重。根据黄仁宇提供的资料,1640 年代, 苏州地区每斤大米的价格升到了100个铜钱, 大批的人饿死, 许多豪宅低价出售而无人问津。
                
                
                 因为白银大量的流入中国,使明朝的东南地区的经济得到了很大的发展,出现了资本主义萌芽,但同时也是原来的天下粮仓的粮食需要跨地区贸易。这使明朝始终面临这粮食危机的风险。而崇祯年间的天灾使粮食危机成了现实。而于此同时白银进口骤然减少,使东南地区的经济遭受重大打击。而帝国的西北因长时间没有白银的灌溉,而却需要用白银缴税,这导致西北的农民的负担大大增加,最后由天灾为导火索,爆发了大规模的农民起义。帝国的东南和西北同时出现了极为严峻的问题,再加上东北后金(清)的军事压力,大明帝国最终走向了崩溃。大量的白银流入给明朝带了了前所未有的机遇,但也给明朝带来了挑战。而明朝面对白银提出的挑战只是消极被动的接受,忽视了货币安全和粮食安全,最后资本主义萌芽没有好好发展起来,最后帝国反而走向了崩溃。

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